Stop Waiting for Perfect Information

Raise your hand if you’ve ever said, before making a decision, "I just need one more piece of data."  Now raise your hand if, after getting one more piece, you just felt you needed one more.

Maybe you're deciding whether to restructure your team. Have a difficult conversation with your kid.  Launch a new initiative. Buy a new laptop.  Change a process that everyone knows isn't working.  You keep gathering information because it feels responsible, thorough, thoughtful. 

But weeks go by. Then months. And the decision is still sitting there, untouched.

Why we hesitate

No decision is actually a decision.  What I’ve seen over the years is that the biggest mistakes rarely come from making a thoughtful decision too early. They come from waiting too long.

Economist Herbert Simon won the Nobel Prize for introducing the concept of bounded rationality, the idea that no one ever has all the information needed to make the perfect decision. Instead, we make the best decision we can with the information, time, and resources available.  (My husband introduced me to this concept by explaining that on some decisions, he likes to maximize, or do the most research he can to make sure his decision is the best it can possibly be.  And on other decisions, he likes to satisfice, making a less important decision more quickly to balance out his energy.  I’m pretty sure he maximized with me!)

There's another reason we hesitate.  Our brains don't like uncertainty.  When we don't know what will happen next, our instinct is to gather more information. But eventually, information gathering becomes a socially acceptable form of procrastination.  It feels productive, but it isn't.

What can you do?

Before spending another week collecting data, ask yourself:  What information would actually change my decision?  Not information that's "nice to have," information that would genuinely alter your course.  If you can't answer that question, chances are you've already learned what you need to know.  You're simply hoping certainty will arrive. 

Another valuable question to ask is: How will I know I’m making the right decision?   What will it feel like in my body to believe I have the information I need?  Sometimes we are waiting for some gut feeling or sense of relief that can only come in hindsight.  Recognizing up front how you’ll feel when you feel certain can help you notice hints of it before it’s fully arrived.

Some decisions are difficult to reverse. Recommending a surgery. Acquiring another company. Closing a location.  Those deserve careful analysis.  But most workplace decisions aren't like that.  They’re smaller, more manageable.  Like trying a different meeting format, piloting a new scheduling system, or reassigning responsibilities.  If what you choose doesn't work, you pivot.  Treating every decision like it's permanent slows organizations to a crawl (and reduces your willingness to take risks).

Former Secretary of State Colin Powell had a simple rule:

Part I: "Use the formula P=40 to 70, in which P stands for the probability of success and the numbers indicate the percentage of information acquired." Part II: "Once the information is in the 40 to 70 range, go with your gut."

Without the math, he’s saying make decisions when you have about 40 to 70 percent of the information you wish you had.  Less than that, and you're guessing. More than that, and you've probably waited too long.

Leadership isn't about certainty.  It's about judgment.

The leaders I admire most share their uncertainty, or their willingness to be wrong.  They say things like:

• "Based on what we know today..."

• "Here's the direction we're taking for now."

• "If we learn something new, we'll adjust."

They make a decision without pretending they can predict the future.

Research by Philip Tetlock found that the most accurate forecasters (“superforecasters”) weren't the people who sounded the most certain. They were the people who continuously updated their thinking as new evidence emerged.

The strongest leaders aren't attached to being right. They're committed to getting it right.

One habit separates decisive leaders from impulsive ones.  They don't just decide; they schedule a review.  Instead of asking, "Did we make the perfect choice?" (which employs a fixed mindset), they ask:

• What did we learn?

• What assumptions proved true?

• What surprised us?

• What will we do differently next time?

  
  

Every decision becomes an experiment, an opportunity to lean into a growth mindset.

This approach also creates psychological safety. Harvard professor Amy Edmondson's research has shown that teams perform better when people feel safe admitting uncertainty, asking questions, and speaking up before small problems become big ones.

Finally, every day you delay a decision, your team is making their own.  They're deciding whether priorities are real, whether the project matters, and whether leadership has confidence.  Sometimes, not deciding is the loudest decision you make.

What can you do?

The goal isn't to make perfect decisions.  The goal is to make thoughtful decisions, communicate them clearly, learn quickly, and adjust when necessary.

The next time you find yourself saying, "I just need one more piece of information," pause and ask yourself: Do I really need more information...or do I simply need more courage?